AI Holiday Shopping 2026: What Adobe’s and Salesforce’s Forecasts Mean for You

AI holiday shopping has gone from experiment to expectation in about a year. Last season, Adobe measured a 693% jump in traffic from generative AI sources to US retail sites. This year, the tools are more capable, the retailers are more prepared and the forecasts are bigger.

This article sets out the key numbers from Adobe’s and Salesforce’s 2026 forecasts, explains what they mean and shows how to use AI for gift shopping without overspending. Forecasts are predictions, not results, so we note who made each one. We checked the figures in September 2026. For background, our guide to AI shopping agents explains how these assistants work.

What does Adobe forecast for the 2026 holiday season?

Adobe Analytics published its forecast on September 28, 2026, covering November 1 to December 31. According to Adobe’s announcement, US online spending will reach $275.1 billion, up 6.7% on last year.

Day or period	Adobe forecast	Change year on year
—	—	—
Whole season (Nov 1–Dec 31)	$275.1 billion	+6.7%
Cyber Week	$47.5 billion	+7.4%
Cyber Monday (Nov 30)	$15.1 billion	+6.2%
Black Friday	$12.9 billion	+9.2%
Thanksgiving	$6.9 billion	+8.5%

Adobe says its forecast draws on more than 1 trillion visits to US retail sites and 100 million products across 18 categories. So it is one of the broadest data sets available, although it covers the US only.

How big is AI holiday shopping traffic expected to be?

Adobe expects traffic from AI services to US retail sites to grow 130% year on year over the season. The biggest jump, it says, will come on Thanksgiving, at 159%. Black Friday AI traffic should rise 95%, and Cyber Monday 88%.

Those growth rates are lower than last year’s 693%, but that was predictable. After all, growth slows as a new habit becomes normal. The starting base is now far larger.

Salesforce frames the trend differently. In its 2026 holiday predictions, published on July 20, it forecast that 20% of all holiday ecommerce traffic will come from AI chat agents. It also reported that 50% of shoppers now use AI assistants somewhere in their buying journey, up 67% on the previous year.

The two companies measure different things, so their numbers aren’t directly comparable. Still, both point to AI holiday shopping becoming a mainstream habit this season.

Does AI traffic actually lead to purchases?

A year ago, the answer was “not much”. Adobe said that in March 2025, visitors arriving from AI sources converted 38% worse than other visitors. By March 2026, however, AI traffic converted 42% better than non-AI traffic, which Adobe called a record.

Adobe also found that AI-referred visitors spent 48% more time on pages and had 12% higher engagement. In short, people who arrive from an AI assistant have often done their research already.

Shoppers themselves also report benefits. In the 2026 holiday forecast, Adobe said 77% of people who use AI for shopping feel more confident in their purchases. In addition, 69% said they were less likely to return items after using AI. Salesforce reported that 74% of shoppers trust product recommendations from AI chat.

Where AI holiday shopping help will show up

AI help won’t sit in one place this season. Instead, it will appear across search, chat apps and retailer sites.

• AI search: Google’s AI Mode and Gemini can show products, and Google’s Universal Cart saves items from different retailers in one place.
• Chat assistants: ChatGPT and other assistants help with research and link to retailers.
• Retailer agents: Salesforce predicts that 1 in 3 ecommerce sites will have their own shopping agent live by Cyber Week 2026.
• Voice and apps: Amazon’s Alexa for Shopping replaced its Rufus assistant in May 2026.

Salesforce also reported that retailers with branded AI agents grew holiday sales 6.2% in 2025, compared with 3.9% for those without. That is a company claim based on its own data, but it explains why so many retailers are rushing to launch one.

What discounts does Adobe expect?

As usual, Adobe forecasts that discounts will peak during Cyber Week. Its expected peak discounts by category are:

• Electronics: 30% off.
• Toys: 29%.
• TVs: 23%.
• Computers and apparel: 23% each.

Adobe also expects shoppers to stock up on everyday items during Cyber Week. For Cyber Week, it forecasts online sales increases of 210% for clothing basics, 150% for personal hygiene products, 113% for baby products and 93% for pet products.

AI can help here, because it can compare prices across retailers quickly. However, an assistant only knows what it can see, so always check the price on the retailer’s page before you buy. Our explainer on whether AI agents can find better prices covers the limits.

Why AI sometimes misses products and prices

AI assistants can only recommend what they can read. That sounds obvious, yet it explains many odd results during AI holiday shopping.

In April 2026, Adobe tested how readable US retail sites are for AI systems. It found that product pages were the weakest area, with only 66% of their content readable by machines. Homepages scored 75% and category pages 74%. Meanwhile, the best retailers scored 82.5%, compared with 54.2% for the weakest.

In practice, that means an assistant may skip a good product or quote an outdated detail, simply because the page is hard for it to read. So if an AI tool can’t find an item you know exists, search the retailer’s site directly. Similarly, if a price looks unusually low, open the product page to confirm it.

Mobile and buy now, pay later

Mobile will also dominate again, according to Adobe. It expects 57.4% of holiday online spending on phones, rising to 63% on Thanksgiving.

Adobe also forecasts $21.3 billion in buy now, pay later spending, up 6.6%. That includes $1.09 billion on Cyber Monday alone. Since AI assistants increasingly surface payment options at checkout, it is worth deciding in advance whether you want to use them.

How to use AI for holiday shopping without overspending

AI holiday shopping works best with a plan. Here is a simple routine that fits the tools available this season.

1. Write a gift list with a budget per person before you open any assistant.
2. Ask AI for ideas within that budget, for example: “Suggest five gifts under $40 for a 10-year-old who likes science.”
3. Ask it to compare the same product across two or three retailers.
4. Check the seller, delivery date and returns policy on the retailer’s own page.
5. Set price alerts for bigger items, then buy when the price meets your target.
6. Keep receipts, because the retailer, not the AI, handles returns.

Here are two prompts that follow that approach:

I have $300 for gifts for six people. Help me split the budget and suggest two ideas for each person, with links to the product pages.

Compare this pair of headphones across three major retailers, including delivery by December 18 and the return window.

Risks to watch this season

However, more AI in shopping also means new risks. Scammers follow shoppers, and holiday season is their busiest time.

• Fake deals: an AI summary may repeat a price from a page that turns out to be a scam site.
• Lookalike shops: always check the web address before paying.
• Hidden instructions: web pages can contain text that tries to steer AI assistants, a risk known as prompt injection.
• Impulse buys: one-click checkout inside chats makes it easy to spend more than planned.

Salesforce’s data adds a sobering note. It reported cart abandonment at 82% and rising consumer pessimism, with 13% more shoppers saying their finances had worsened. So a budget matters more than any clever tool.

Who benefits most from AI holiday shopping?

Busy shoppers with long gift lists will probably gain the most, because AI speeds up research. People who struggle to find ideas for hard-to-buy-for relatives may also find it helpful.

On the other hand, shoppers who already know what they want may gain little. For them, a trusted retailer’s site and a price alert do most of the job. Either way, the final checks stay with you.

AI holiday shopping: FAQs

Sources

• Adobe, “Adobe: U.S. Holiday Shopping Season to Hit Record $275.1 Billion Online, Rising 6.7% YoY” (September 28, 2026)
• Adobe, “AI traffic grows but retail sites lag in AI search visibility” (April 2026)
• Salesforce, “2026 Holiday Predictions: A Unified Yet Fractured Journey” (July 20, 2026)
• Salesforce, “Holiday Shopping Data for Peak Holidays” (accessed September 2026)
• CNBC, “Amazon ditches Rufus chatbot, launches Alexa shopping agent in AI strategy pivot” (May 13, 2026)